Day 6 further update re bad weather ahead:
I have just downloaded a fresh set of grib files via sailmail, and in 3-4 days time we are going to get clobbered by a very potent band of SE trades, 30 knot average winds (which means plenty of 40 knot gusts). This starts in about 72 hrs time over the entire western south pacific, from Fiji to Tahiti and it looks like it will last a while. I am not concerned if its only for a day or so, but this system looks big, powerful and long lasting I am concerned that it will generate very rough seas, getting rougher each day.
Right now this system is still about 72 hrs (3 days) away from our projected position. So our options are 1. Head up to Suvarov, 110 miles north, under motor, once there wait 2 days for the system to arrive then wait it out. Maybe a week in a Suvarov anchorage with 30 knot winds. No fuel and no supplies of any nature. We will have to run the gennie etc. By the time we leave Suvarov we will only have about 50 engine hours available to us and still 1000 miles to Fiji. Our food will also be fairly low by then. So not a great long term option. Also a unknown anchorage with fair to bad holding.
2. Head to Pago-Pago, American Samoa. Its about 490 miles due west, its a very sheltered harbour with all services, fuel and shops. But we will not get there before the strong trades hit us. Probably our last day and a half will be in 30 knot winds and a building following sea. But the sea state should still be OK at this point. This is a workable option. From Pago-Pago its only another 500 miles down to Fiji (3-4 days sailing, it wont affect our timing), we can wait for a good weather window and do it with full tanks of fuel and a well rested crew.
3. Keep going for Fiji. It will be a rough and fast ride, probably do it in under 8 days, surfing down waves, 3 reefs in the main or bare poles, white knuckles. Any takers?
So Pago-Pago it will be. For now anyway. Lets hope those last 2 days are not too crazy.
Cheers
G
